Friday Seminar - Joan Ogden on Alternative Fuels

Hydrogen Fuel Apparatus

Tomorrow's TRANSOC Friday Seminar is with Joan Odgen of the UC Davis STEPS program presenting, "Transitions to Alternative Fuels: Comparing H2, Electricity, and Biofuels":

We analyze and compare alternative scenarios for adoption of new light duty vehicle and fuel technologies that could enable deep cuts in gasoline consumption and GHG emissions by 2050. We also estimate the transitional costs for making new vehicle and fuel technologies economically competitive with gasoline vehicles. We estimate future GHG emissions and gasoline use for the following scenarios:

·  Efficiency—Currently feasible improvements in gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) technology are introduced.

·      Biofuels—Large-scale use of low-carbon biofuels is implemented.

·      PHEV success—Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) play a major role beyond 2025.

·      HFCV success—Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) play a major role beyond 2025.

·      Portfolio—More-efficient ICEVs+biofuels+PHEVs+HFCVs implemented in various combinations.

All scenarios assume the same total number of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled, but the vehicle mix over time is different for each scenario. We compare each scenario to a reference scenario where modest improvements in efficiency take place and use of biofuels increases but no electric-drive vehicles are implemented. We also explore transition dynamics using a “learning curve” model, and estimate the cumulative investments that would be required to bring new technologies to “breakeven” with gasoline ICEV technologies.  Finally, we suggest future work to better understand transition costs.

The seminary will be this Friday, Septermber 9 2011, from 4-5 p.m. in 406 Davis Hall. Don't forget about Cookie hour before hand at 3:30 in the library. See you there!