Friday Seminar: Quantifying the Impact of Flight Predictability on Strategic and Operational Airline Decisions

THA A340-500 taxiing for spot.

Tomorrow is the last day of the semester - well done, students! You made it to the end! It's also the last Friday Seminar for the school year. Wrapping things up in style, Berkeley Ph.D. candidate Lu Hao will present her research, "Quantifying the Impact of Flight Predictability on Strategic and Operational Airline Decisions."

The idea of predictability or (inversely) variability is not new in the field of ground transportation, where (un)predictability mainly refers to the unpredictable variations in travel time and is thus directly related to uncertainty of travel time. In the realm of commercial air transportation, there is limited knowledge of how to quantify predictability and assess the potential benefit of improved predictability. Moreover, different aspects in airline decision making require different considerations when trying to measure and assess flight predictability.

In this work, the concept and metric for flight predictability is developed for both strategic and operational airline decision making. For both aspects, the appropriate measure for predictability is defined and the behavioral relationship between predictability and decision making is revealed. The potential benefits from improved predictability are then assessed for the two aspects, using airport departure queue assignment optimization and benefit pool analysis. The saving from improved predictability is significant for both cases, if the right metric is used. Comparing the two aspects, the difference in measuring flight predictability is rooted in the different perspectives of airlines’ consideration.

The Seminar takes place in 212 O'Brien (note the different location!) from 4-5 PM on May 16, 2014. There will be no cookie hour.