Friday Seminar: Incorporating Predictability into Cost Optimization for Ground Delay Programs

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The Spring semester may be winding up, but we still have Friday Seminars! This week features UC Berkeley Ph.D. candidate Yi Liu presenting, "Incorporating Predictability into Cost Optimization for Ground Delay Programs."

When there is foreseen congestion at an airport, Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) are often implemented to balance arrival demand with available arrival capacity by holding inbound flights at their departure airports. Through this, GDPs transfer expensive airborne delay in the terminal airspace of the arrival airport to cheaper and safer ground delay at the departure airports. In the implementation of GDPs, emphasis has mainly been put on maximizing throughput while predictability is overlooked. As a result, planned and unplanned delays are assigned the same cost coefficient in the GDP cost optimization problem. This ignores the fact that unplanned delays require extra effort from both the flight operator side and the traffic manager side and cause more pain for the passengers, which should correspond to higher costs.

This work introduces the goal of predictability into GDP cost optimization under capacity uncertainty. This is accomplished by assigning extra premiums to unplanned delays and planned but un-incurred delay, due to their unpredictability. To estimate delay components in the cost functions, two stochastic GDP models are developed using continuous approximation and deterministic queueing theory: a static no-revision model and a dynamic model considering one GDP revision. The results from the case study show that unpredictability can have a strong impact on GDP decisions. Depending on the value of predictability, the proposed method may reduce system-wide cost by 10%.

The seminar takes place this Friday, May 2, 2014 in 534 Davis from 4-5 PM. Cookie Hour will commence at 3:30 in the library. See you there!